Treffer: Value of precision: a framework for quantifying the benefits from increased application rate precision in horticulture.

Precision technology is often attributed great potential for more efficient and sustainable horticulture. Robots and variable-rate technology respond to the specific needs of individual plants and thus avoid over- or under-treatment. However, these potentials usually remain unquantified, which makes decisions on development and regulation challenging. In this work, we present the Value of Precision (VoP) as a novel conceptual and mathematical framework for assessing the benefits of increased application rate precision. Grounded in measurement science and decision theory, this approach allows the prospective quantification of expected financial return for varying levels of assumed future precision. First, we assess the VoP for a classic saturating yield response function analytically. Here, we obtain an Expected Value of Perfect Precision (EVPP) that quadratically depends on the mean absolute error (“imprecision”) of the applied quantity. Second, we apply the VoP framework in a comprehensive probabilistic case study to assess the potential of robotic flower thinning in apple production. We present a Bayesian hierarchical yield and quality response model for the probabilistic prediction of apple revenue as a function of thinning intensity. We find that thinning with perfect precision would increase the expected contribution margin by 1637 ± 285 €/ha/year or around 25%. These results can provide practical decision support for users, technology developers, and policy-makers. Overall, we demonstrate that the VoP framework is a useful tool for quantifying the benefits of increased precision for both deterministic and probabilistic models. An implementation in Python is available as open source code at . Highlights: Model-based quantification of the economic benefits from more precise application. Introduction of the Value of Precision (VoP) as a novel conceptual and mathematical framework. Analytical calculation of the VoP for a simple fertilization model structure. Probabilistic quantification of the VoP for apple thinning using a hierarchical Bayesian yield model. Prospective assessment of the benefits of robotic systems to support decisions of users, technology developers and policy-makers. Impact: This work addresses a critical gap in the research on precision horticulture by providing a novel mathematical framework for quantifying the benefits of increased application rate precision. By developing the Value of Precision approach and demonstrating its application across multiple horticultural scenarios, our research directly supports assessment of resource use efficiency and profitability for emerging technologies while enabling data-driven decisions about within-field variability management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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