Treffer: Modeling the dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) case in Central Java using spline truncated regression method.

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a disease caused by a virus spread by the Aedes Aegypti mosquito, which often causes problems in the community because the number of cases is relatively high every year. In some cases, it causes the death of the patient. Therefore, DHF must be considered, especially in terms of case prevention. This study aims to determine the factors influencing the number of DHF cases in Central Java. The appropriate analytical method for this research is Spline Truncated Regression because this method is good enough for data types that do not have a specific pattern or random. The truncated spline regression model in this study uses first order (linear) with one-knot point, two-knot points, and three-knot points. The best model is determined based on the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value. The best model obtained from the minimum GCV value is a spline regression model with three-knot points. The minimum GCV value produced is 38.13754. The coefficient of determination obtained is 92%. The six factors used as predictor variables have a significant effect on the morbidity of DHF in Central Java. The factors that have a significant effect on DHF cases in Central Java are the number of health centers and hospitals, the number of general practitioners, the percentage of families with proper sanitation, the percentage of adequate drinking water facilities, the percentage of families with protected wells, and the area elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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