Treffer: Breaking through the 'wall of complexity' in a politically themed microworld: a challenge for elected officials and the general public.
Original Publication: Lengerich : Pabst Science, 2000-
Arnold RD, Wade JP (2015) A definition of systems thinking: a systems approach. Proc Comput Sci 44:669–678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2015.03.050. (PMID: 10.1016/j.procs.2015.03.050)
Bacchi C (2020) Problem-solving as a governing knowledge: “skills”-testing in PISA and PIAAC. Open J Polit Sci 10(01):82–105. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojps.2020.101007. (PMID: 10.4236/ojps.2020.101007)
Bakhanova E, Garcia JA, Raffe WL, Voinov A (2020) Targeting social learning and engagement: what serious games and gamification can offer to participatory modeling. Environ Model Softw 134:104846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.10486. (PMID: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.10486)
Bakken BE (2008) On improving dynamic decision-making: implications from multiple-process cognitive theory. Syst Res Behav Sci off J Int Fed Syst Res 25(4):493–501. https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.906. (PMID: 10.1002/sres.906)
Baron J (2023) Thinking and deciding. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009263672. (PMID: 10.1017/9781009263672)
Bartholdy S, Kipman U (2019) Influences of reasoning and achievement motivation on complex problem solving in a new microworld operationalization. J Glob Educ Res 3(2):141–157. https://doi.org/10.5038/2577-509X.3.2.1035. (PMID: 10.5038/2577-509X.3.2.1035)
Béchard B, Morneau-Guérin F (2024) Mesure de la performance à une tâche de décision dynamique dans un micromonde simulé par ordinateur. Bull AMQ 64(3):1–30.
Béchard B, Hodgetts H, Morneau-Guérin F, Ouimet M, Tremblay S (2023) Political complexity and the pervading role of ideology in policy-making. J Dyn Decis Mak. https://doi.org/10.11588/jddm.2023.1.94755. (PMID: 10.11588/jddm.2023.1.94755)
Béchard B (2023) Tout simplement humain: une étude de la complexité politique [Dissertation, Université Laval]. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/121685.
Beckmann JF, Goode N (2014) The benefit of being naïve and knowing it: the unfavourable impact of perceived context familiarity on learning in complex problem solving tasks. Instr Sci 42:271–290. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11251-013-9280-7. (PMID: 10.1007/s11251-013-9280-7)
Beckmann JF, Birney DP, Goode N (2017) Beyond psychometrics: the difference between difficult problem solving and complex problem solving. Front Psychol 8:1739. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01739. (PMID: 10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01739290669905641385)
Brehmer B, Dörner D (1993) Experiments with computer-simulated microworlds. Behav Sci 38(1):1–12.
Bruckmaier G, Krauss S, Binder K, Hilbert S, Brunner M (2021) Tversky and Kahneman’s cognitive illusions: who can solve them, and why? Front Psychol 12:584689. (PMID: 339120978075297)
Cronin MA, Gonzalez C, Sterman JD (2009) Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 108(1):116–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003. (PMID: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.003)
Csapó B, Funke J (2017) The nature of problem solving: using research to inspire 21st century learning. OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264273955-en. (PMID: 10.1787/9789264273955-en)
Danner D, Hagemann D, Holt DV, Wüstenberg S, Funke J (2011) Measuring performance in dynamic decision-making. J Individ Differ 32(4):225–233. https://doi.org/10.1027/1614-0001/a000055. (PMID: 10.1027/1614-0001/a000055)
Democracy 3: Take Control of Your Country! [Video Game] (2013) Positech Games, England.
Diehl E, Sterman JD (1995) Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 62(2):198–215.
Dörner D (1980) On the difficulties people have in dealing with complexity. Simul Games 11(1):87–106. https://doi.org/10.1177/104687818001100108. (PMID: 10.1177/104687818001100108)
Dörner D (1996) The logic of failure: recognizing and avoiding error in complex situations. Metropolitan Books, New York.
Dörner D, Funke J (2017) Complex problem solving: what it is and what it is not. Front Psychol 8:1–11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01153. (PMID: 10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01153)
Dörner D, Güss CD (2013) PSI: a computational architecture of cognition, motivation, and emotion. Rev Gen Psychol 17(3):297–317. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0032947. (PMID: 10.1037/a0032947)
Dörner D, Güss CD (2022) Human error in complex problem solving and dynamic decision making: a taxonomy of 24 errors and a theory. Comput Hum Behav Rep 7:100222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chbr.2022.100222. (PMID: 10.1016/j.chbr.2022.100222)
Dörner D, Kreuzig HW, Reither F, Stäudel T (1983) Lohhausen: Vom Umgang mit Unbestimmtheit und Komplexität [Lohhausen: On dealing with uncertainty and complexity]. Bern, Germany: Huber.
Doyle JK (1997) The cognitive psychology of systems thinking. Syst Dyn Rev J Syst Dyn Soc 13(3):253–265. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199723)13:3%3c253::AID-SDR129%3e3.0.CO;2-H. (PMID: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199723)13:3<253::AID-SDR129>3.0.CO;2-H)
Doyle JK, Radzicki MJ, Trees WS (2008) Measuring change in mental models of complex dynamic systems. Complex decision making: theory and practice. Springer, Berlin, pp 269–294.
Eichmann B, Greiff S, Naumann J, Brandhuber L, Goldhammer F (2020) Exploring behavioural patterns during complex problem-solving. J Comput Assist Learn 36(6):933–956. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcal.12451. (PMID: 10.1111/jcal.12451)
Ericsson KA, Hoffman RR, Kozbelt A (2006) The Cambridge handbook of expertise and expert performance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Fischer H, Gonzalez C (2016) Making sense of dynamic systems: how our understanding of stocks and flows depends on a global perspective. Cogn Sci 40(2):496–512. https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12239. (PMID: 10.1111/cogs.1223925864456)
Fischer A, Greiff S, Funke J (2015) The process of solving complex problems. Cogn Sci 39(3):652–676. https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12192. (PMID: 10.1111/cogs.12192)
Fischer A, Greiff S, Funke J (2012) The process of solving complex problems. Journal of Problem Solving, 4.
Forrester JW (1992) Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling. Eur J Oper Res 59(1):42–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90006-U. (PMID: 10.1016/0377-2217(92)90006-U)
Forrester JW (1994) System dynamics, systems thinking, and soft OR. Syst Dyn Rev 10(2–3):245–256. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.4260100211. (PMID: 10.1002/sdr.4260100211)
Frensch PA, Funke J (1995a) Complex problem solving: the European perspective. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ.
Frensch PA, Funke J (1995b) Definitions, traditions, and a general framework for understanding complex problem solving. In: Frensch PA, Funke J (eds) Complex problem solving. The European perspective. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, pp 3–25.
Funke J (2010) Complex problem solving: a case for complex cognition? Cogn Process 11:133–142. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10339-009-0345-0. (PMID: 10.1007/s10339-009-0345-019902283)
Funke J (2014) Analysis of minimal complex systems and complex problem solving require different forms of causal cognition. Front Psychol 5:85704. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00739. (PMID: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00739)
Funke J (2021) It requires more than intelligence to solve consequential world problems. J Intell 9(3):38. https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence9030038. (PMID: 10.3390/jintelligence9030038342873328293339)
Funke J, Fischer A, Holt DV (2017) When less is less: Solving multiple simple problems is not complex problem solving—a comment on Greiff et al. (2015). J Intell 5(1):5. https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence5010005. (PMID: 10.3390/jintelligence5010005311623976526458)
Funke J, Fischer A, Holt DV (2018) Competencies for complexity: problem solving in the twenty-first century. In: Care E, Griffin P, Wilson M (eds) Assessment and teaching of 21st century skills: research and applications. Springer, Cham, New York, pp 41–53.
Gigerenzer G, Brighton H (2009) Homo heuristicus: why biased minds make better inferences. Top Cogn Sci 1(1):107–143. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1756-8765.2008.01006.x. (PMID: 10.1111/j.1756-8765.2008.01006.x25164802)
Glouberman S, Zimmerman B (2004) Complicated and complex systems: what would successful reform of medicare look like? In: Forest PG, Marchildon G, McIntosh T (eds) Changing health care in Canada. University of Toronto Press, Toronto, pp 21–53.
Gonzalez C (2022) Learning and dynamic decision making. Top Cogn Sci 14(1):14–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/tops.12581. (PMID: 10.1111/tops.1258134767300)
Gonzalez C, Vanyukov P, Martin MK (2005) The use of microworlds to study dynamic decision making. Comput Hum Behav 21(2):273–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2004.02.014. (PMID: 10.1016/j.chb.2004.02.014)
Gonzalez C, Fakhari P, Busemeyer J (2017) Dynamic decision making: learning processes and new research directions. Hum Factors 59(5):713–721. https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720817710347. (PMID: 10.1177/001872081771034728548893)
Goode N, Beckmann JF (2010) You need to know: there is a causal relationship between structural knowledge and control performance in complex problem solving tasks. Intelligence 38(3):345–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2010.01.001. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2010.01.001)
Greiff S, Scherer R (2018) Complex problem solving and intelligence: a meta-analysis. Intelligence 66:98–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2017.11.003. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2017.11.003)
Greiff S, Wüstenberg S, Funke J (2012) Dynamic problem solving: a new assessment perspective. Appl Psychol Meas 36:189–213. https://doi.org/10.1177/014662161243962. (PMID: 10.1177/014662161243962)
Greiff S, Wüstenberg S, Holt DV, Funke J (2013) Computer-based assessment of complex problem solving in PISA 2012: framework and empirical evidence. Intelligence 41(5):375–383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2013.05.002. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2013.05.002)
Greiff S, Wüstenberg S, Csapó B, Demetriou A, Hautamäki J, Graesser A, Martin R (2014) Domain-general problem solving skills and education in the 21st century. Educ Res Rev 13:74–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.edurev.2014.10.002. (PMID: 10.1016/j.edurev.2014.10.002)
Grežo M, Sarmány-Schuller I (2022) It is not enough to be smart: on explaining the relation between intelligence and complex problem solving. Technol Knowl Learn Learn Math Sci Arts Context Digit Technol 27(1):69–89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10758-021-09498-2. (PMID: 10.1007/s10758-021-09498-2)
Griffin P, Care E (2014) Assessment and teaching of 21st century skills: methods and approach. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2324-5. (PMID: 10.1007/978-94-007-2324-5)
Gureckis TM, Love BC (2009) Short-term gains, long-term pains: how cues about state aid learning in dynamic environments. Cognition 113(3):293–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2009.03.013. (PMID: 10.1016/j.cognition.2009.03.013194276352783717)
Güss CD, Devore Edelstein H, Badibanga A, Bartow S (2017a) Comparing business experts and novices in complex problem solving. J Intell 5(2):20. https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence5020020. (PMID: 10.3390/jintelligence5020020311624116526439)
Güss CD, Tuason MT, Gerhard C (2017b) Cross-national comparisons of complex problem-solving strategies in two complex dynamic environments. Cogn Syst Res 42:12–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogsys.2017.01.004. (PMID: 10.1016/j.cogsys.2017.01.004)
Haig BD (2022) Repositioning construct validity theory: from nomological networks to pragmatic theories and their evaluation by explanatory means. Perspect Psychol Sci. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691623119585. (PMID: 10.1177/1745691623119585)
Halford GS, Wilson WH, Phillips S (1998) Processing capacity defined by relational complexity: Implications for comparative, developmental, and cognitive psychology. Behav Brain Sci 21(6):803–831. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X98001769. (PMID: 10.1017/S0140525X9800176910191879)
Herde CN, Wüstenberg S, Greiff S (2016) Assessment of Complex Problem Solving: What We Know and What We Don’t Know Applied Measurement in Education 29(4)265-277 https://doi.org/10.1080/08957347.2016.1209208. (PMID: 10.1017/S0140525X98001769)
Jaradat RM (2015) Complex system governance requires systems thinking-how to find systems thinkers. Int J Syst Syst Eng 6(1–2):53–70. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSSE.2015.068813. (PMID: 10.1504/IJSSE.2015.068813)
Jobidon ME, Turcotte I, Aubé C, Labrecque A, Kelsey S, Tremblay S (2017) Role variability in self-organizing teams working in crisis management. Small Group Res 48(1):62–92. https://doi.org/10.1177/1046496416676892. (PMID: 10.1177/1046496416676892)
Kluge A (2008) What you train is what you get? Task requirements and training methods in complex problem-solving. Comput Hum Behav 24(2):284–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2007.01.013. (PMID: 10.1016/j.chb.2007.01.013)
Knauff M, Wolf AG (2010) Complex cognition: the science of human reasoning, problem-solving, and decision-making. Cogn Process 11:99–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10339-010-0362-z. (PMID: 10.1007/s10339-010-0362-z20309605)
Krems JF (2014) Cognitive flexibility and complex problem solving. In: Frensch PA, Funke J (eds) Complex problem solving: the European perspective. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, pp 201–218.
Krieger F, Stadler M, Bühner M, Fischer F, Greiff S (2021) Assessing complex problem-solving skills in under 20 minutes. Psychol Test Adapt Dev 2(1):80. https://doi.org/10.1027/2698-1866/a000009. (PMID: 10.1027/2698-1866/a000009)
Kurtz CF, Snowden DJ (2003) The new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated world. IBM Syst J 42(3):462–483. https://doi.org/10.1147/sj.423.0462. (PMID: 10.1147/sj.423.0462)
Lafond D, DuCharme MB, Gagnon JF, Tremblay S (2012) Support requirements for cognitive readiness in complex operations. J Cogn Eng Decis Mak 6(4):393–426. https://doi.org/10.1177/1555343412446193. (PMID: 10.1177/1555343412446193)
Lafond D, Gagnon JF, St-Louis ME, Pronovost S, DuCharme MB, Tremblay S (2014) Decision heuristics and human performance in a policy management simulation. In: 32nd international conference of the system dynamics society: good governance in a complex world, pp 1–13.
Leys C, Ley C, Klein O, Bernard P, Licata L (2013) Detecting outliers: do not use standard deviation around the mean, use absolute deviation around the median. J Exp Soc Psychol 49(4):764–766. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2013.03.013. (PMID: 10.1016/j.jesp.2013.03.013)
Liu X, Stoutenborough J, Vedlitz A (2017) Bureaucratic expertise, overconfidence, and policy choice. Governance 30(4):705–725. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12257. (PMID: 10.1111/gove.12257)
Lotz C, Greiff S, Wüstenberg S, Funke J (2016) Intelligence in action: exploring the role of knowledge acquisition for complex problem solving. Intelligence 55:10–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2015.12.002. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2015.12.002)
Lotz C, Wüstenberg S, Greiff S (2018) Complex problem solving as a distinct facet of intelligence: evidence from a repeated measures design. Learn Individ Differ 65:14–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2018.05.005. (PMID: 10.1016/j.lindif.2018.05.005)
MacInnis B, Anderson SE, Krosnick JA (2018) Process approval and democratic legitimacy: how Americans want their elected representatives to decide how to vote.
Miler KC (2009) The limitations of heuristics for political elites. Polit Psychol 30(6):863–894. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2009.00731.x. (PMID: 10.1111/j.1467-9221.2009.00731.x)
Montigny E, Morency R (2014) Le député québécois en circonscription: évolution, rôle et réalités. Can J Polit Sci 47(1):71–92. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423914000158. (PMID: 10.1017/S0008423914000158)
Morecroft JD (1988) System dynamics and microworlds for policymakers. Eur J Oper Res 35(3):301–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(88)90221-4. (PMID: 10.1016/0377-2217(88)90221-4)
Moxnes E (2000) Not only the tragedy of the commons: misperceptions of feedback and policies for sustainable development. Syst Dyn Rev J Syst Dyn Soc 16(4):325–348. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.201. (PMID: 10.1002/sdr.201)
Nguyen NC, Bosch OJ (2014) The art of interconnected thinking: starting with the young. Challenges 5(2):239–259. https://doi.org/10.3390/challe5020239. (PMID: 10.3390/challe5020239)
Nguyen LKN, Kumar C, Jiang B, Zimmermann N (2023) Implementation of systems thinking in public policy: a systematic review. Systems 11(2):64. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11020064. (PMID: 10.3390/systems11020064)
Nicolay B, Krieger F, Stadler M, Vainikainen MP, Lindner MA, Hansen A, Greiff S (2022) Examining the development of metacognitive strategy knowledge and its link to strategy application in complex problem solving–a longitudinal analysis. Metacogn Learn 17(3):837–854. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11409-022-09324-9. (PMID: 10.1007/s11409-022-09324-9)
Nikolaou I, Georgiou K, Kotsasarlidou V (2019) Exploring the relationship of a gamified assessment with performance. Span J Psychol 22:E6. https://doi.org/10.1017/sjp.2019.5. (PMID: 10.1017/sjp.2019.530819261)
Osborne JW, Overbay A (2004) The power of outliers (and why researchers should always check for them). Pract Assess Res Eval 9(1):6. https://doi.org/10.7275/qf69-7k43. (PMID: 10.7275/qf69-7k43)
Osman M (2010) Controlling uncertainty: a review of human behavior in complex dynamic environments. Psychol Bull 136(1):65. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017815. (PMID: 10.1037/a001781520063926)
Pilet JB, Talukder D, Sanhueza MJ, Rangoni S (2020) Do citizens perceive elected politicians, experts and citizens as alternative or complementary policy-makers? A study of Belgian citizens. Front Polit Sci 2:567297. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2020.567297. (PMID: 10.3389/fpos.2020.567297)
Pronovost S, Tremblay S, Université Laval Faculté des Sciences Sociales (2017) Specimen theoriae novae de mensura complexus = Mesures objectives de la complexité = Objective measures of complexity [Dissertation, Université Laval]. http://central.bac-lac.gc.ca/.redirect?app=damspub&id=e203b8ee-eac8-4c8c-9a0c-c5add5be30f7.
Pronovost S, Gagnon JF, Lafond D, Tremblay S (2014) Models of complexity for dynamic decision making derived from cognitive informatics, complexity theory, and psychophysics. In: Proceedings of the annual meeting of the cognitive science society, vol 36, no 36.
Qudrat-Ullah H (2014) Yes we can: improving performance in dynamic tasks. Decis Support Syst 61:23–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2014.01.009. (PMID: 10.1016/j.dss.2014.01.009)
Rahmandad H, Repenning N, Sterman J (2009) Effects of feedback delay on learning. Syst Dyn Rev 25(4):309–338. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.427. (PMID: 10.1002/sdr.427)
Randle JM, Stroink ML (2018) The development and initial validation of the paradigm of systems thinking. Syst Res Behav Sci 35(6):645–657. https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.2508. (PMID: 10.1002/sres.2508)
Reither F (1981) Thinking and acting in complex situations: a study of experts’ behavior. Simul Games 12(2):125–140. https://doi.org/10.1177/104687818101200202. (PMID: 10.1177/104687818101200202)
Richards DEA (2010) Political complexity: nonlinear models of politics. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor.
Romero M, Usart M, Ott M (2015) Can serious games contribute to developing and sustaining 21st-century skills? Games Cult 10(2):148–177. https://doi.org/10.1177/1555412014548919. (PMID: 10.1177/1555412014548919)
Rudolph J, Niepel C, Greiff S, Goldhammer F, Kröner S (2017) Metacognitive confidence judgments and their link to complex problem solving. Intelligence 63:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2017.04.005. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2017.04.005)
Schoppek W, Fischer A (2015) Complex problem solving—single ability or complex phenomenon? Front Psychol 6:1669. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01669. (PMID: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01669265941844633517)
Schoppek W (2002) Examples, rules, and strategies in the control of dynamic systems. Cogn Sci Q 2(1):63-92.
Senge PM, Sterman JD (1992) Systems thinking and organizational learning: acting locally and thinking globally in the organization of the future. Eur J Oper Res 59(1):137–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90011-W. (PMID: 10.1016/0377-2217(92)90011-W)
Sheffer L (2018) Behavioural foundations of elite politics: how individual-level characteristics shape the decision making of elected politicians. University of Toronto, Toronto.
Sheffer L, Loewen P (2019) Electoral confidence, overconfidence, and risky behavior: evidence from a study with elected politicians. Polit Behav 41:31–51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9438-0. (PMID: 10.1007/s11109-017-9438-0)
Sheffer L, Loewen PJ, Soroka S, Walgrave S, Sheafer T (2018) Nonrepresentative representatives: an experimental study of the decision making of elected politicians. Am Polit Sci Rev 112(2):302–321. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000114. (PMID: 10.1017/S0003055418000114)
Simon HA (1979) Models of thought, vol 352. Yale University Press, New Haven.
Simons A, Wohlgenannt I, Weinmann M, Fleischer S (2021) Good gamers, good managers? A proof-of-concept study with Sid Meier’s civilization. RMS 15:957–990. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-020-00378-0. (PMID: 10.1007/s11846-020-00378-0)
Sonnleitner P, Brunner M, Greiff S, Funke J, Keller U, Martin R, Hazotte C, Mayer H, Latour T (2012) The genetics lab. Acceptance and psychometric characteristics of a computer-based microworld to assess complex problem solving. Psychol Test Assess Model 54:54–72.
Stadler M, Niepel C, Greiff S, Kröner S (2015) Complex problem solving as an indicator of cognitive ability: a meta-analytic review. Psychol Assess 27(3):699–716. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000072. (PMID: 10.1037/pas0000072)
Stadler M, Becker N, Greiff S, Spinath FM (2016a) Complex problem solving and intelligence: a meta-analysis. Intelligence 59:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2016.08.003. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2016.08.003)
Stadler M, Niepel C, Greiff S (2016b) Easily too difficult: estimating item difficulty in computer simulated microworlds. Comput Hum Behav 65:100–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2016.08.025. (PMID: 10.1016/j.chb.2016.08.025)
Stadler M, Niepel C, Greiff S (2019) Differentiating between static and complex problems: a theoretical framework and its empirical validation. Intelligence 72:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2018.11.003. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2018.11.003)
Stadler M, Herborn K, Mustafić M, Greiff S (2020) The assessment of collaborative problem solving in PISA 2015: an investigation of the validity of the PISA 2015 CPS tasks. Comput Educ 157:103964. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2020.103964. (PMID: 10.1016/j.compedu.2020.103964)
Stave KA, Beck A, Galvan C (2015) Improving learners’ understanding of environmental accumulations through simulation. Simul Gaming 46(3–4):270–292. https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878114531764. (PMID: 10.1177/1046878114531764)
Sterman JD (1989) Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 43(3):301–335. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(89)90041. (PMID: 10.1016/0749-5978(89)90041)
Sterman JD (2006) Learning from evidence in a complex world. Am J Public Health 96(3):505–514. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2005.066043. (PMID: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.066043164495791470513)
Sterman JD (2010) Does formal system dynamics training improve people’s understanding of accumulation? Syst Dyn Rev 26(4):316–334. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.447. (PMID: 10.1002/sdr.447)
Sternberg RJ (2021) Adaptive intelligence: surviving and thriving in times of uncertainty. Perspect Psychol Sci 16(5):952–968. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691621990623. (PMID: 10.1177/1745691621990623)
Sternberg RJ, Wagner RK, Okagaki L (2018) Practical intelligence: the nature and role of tacit knowledge in work and at school. In: Puckett JM, Reese HW (eds) Mechanisms of everyday cognition. Psychology Press, New York, pp 205–227.
Stolwijk S, Vis B (2021) Politicians, the representativeness heuristic and decision-making biases. Polit Behav 43(4):1411–1432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09594-6. (PMID: 10.1007/s11109-020-09594-6)
Süß HM, Kretzschmar A (2018) Impact of cognitive abilities and prior knowledge on complex problem solving performance–Empirical results and a plea for ecologically valid microworlds. Front Psychol 9:626. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00626. (PMID: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00626298676275952078)
Tetlock P (2017) Expert political judgment: how good is it? How can we know? Princeton University Press, Princeton. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818. (PMID: 10.1515/9781400888818)
Thomas LC, Wickens CD (2001) Visual displays and cognitive tunneling: frames of reference effects on spatial judgments and change detection. In: Proceedings of the human factors and ergonomics society annual meeting, vol 45, issue no 4. SAGE Publications, Los Angeles, pp 336–340. https://doi.org/10.1177/154193120104500415.
Tremblay S, Gagnon JF, Lafond D, Hodgetts HM, Doiron M, Jeuniaux PP (2017) A cognitive prosthesis for complex decision-making. Appl Ergon 58:349–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apergo.2016.07.009. (PMID: 10.1016/j.apergo.2016.07.00927633232)
Vester F (2010) Ecopolicy: a cybernetic environmental simulation game [video game]. English/German version.
Vis B (2019) Heuristics and political elites’ judgment and decision-making. Polit Stud Rev 17(1):41–52. https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929917750311. (PMID: 10.1177/1478929917750311)
Weise JJ, Greiff S, Sparfeldt JR (2020) The moderating effect of prior knowledge on the relationship between intelligence and complex problem solving–testing the Elshout-Raaheim hypothesis. Intelligence 83:101502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2020.101502. (PMID: 10.1016/j.intell.2020.101502)
Weise JJ, Greiff S, Sparfeldt JR (2022) Focusing on eigendynamic effects promotes students’ performance in complex problem solving: a log-file analysis of strategic behavior. Comput Educ 189:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2022.104579. (PMID: 10.1016/j.compedu.2022.104579)
Wenke D, Frensch PA, Funke J (2005) Complex problem solving and intelligence: empirical relation and causal direction. In: Sternberg RJ, Pretz JE (eds) Cognition and intelligence: identifying the mechanisms of the mind. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 160–187.
Wittmann WW, Hattrup K (2004) The relationship between performance in dynamic systems and intelligence. Syst Res Behav Sci off J Int Fed Syst Res 21(4):393–409.
Weitere Informationen
Political leaders are often regarded as the most qualified individuals to address modern societal challenges, owing to the knowledge they acquire through their experience in dealing with complex issues, governance and management, and working towards making impactful decisions. To understand the influence of prior knowledge on decision-making, we conducted a comparative analysis of complex decision-making performance in a politically themed computer-simulated microworld involving incumbent elected officials and a general population sample, each contrasted with a random-response baseline produced with randomly generated decisions. Participants were tasked to govern a country for re-election while maintaining financial stability. The pattern of results suggests that decision-making faces a 'wall of complexity' whether one is an elected official or a citizen. Although elected officials generally reported having greater political knowledge, their performance was still relatively poor. The elected officials and general population subgroups performed at the same level and only slightly better than chance. Addressing the societal challenges of our time requires elected officials to possess more than domain-specific prior knowledge.
(© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Marta Olivetti Belardinelli.)
Declarations. Conflict of interest: The authors report that there are no competing interests to declare. Ethical approval: Approval was obtained from the ethics committee of University Laval (CERUL: 2018-032). The procedures used in this study adhere to the tenets of the Declaration of Helsinki.